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Population ageind and public finance targets / OKSANEN, Heikki.
Brussels : European Commission, Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs, 2003, 28 p.

http://europa.eu.int/comm/economy_finance/publications/... (22-12-2003)
Collection : Economic Papers ; 196
Format de fichier : Adobe Acrobat PDF
Droits d'auteur : Cette oeuvre est protégée par un droit d'auteur. Elle ne peut être reproduite qu'à des fins d'études privées ou de recherche et seulement si la source est mentionnée.

Mots-clés principaux
:
Europe
Vieillissement démographique
Coûts
Financement du système sociosanitaire
Statistiques
Indicateur


Résumé :

Ce document évalue des mesures alternatives pour analyser la pérennité à long terme des finances publiques en prenant en compte le vieillissement de la population. Il présente également une méthode pour transformer les projections des dépenses à long terme en cibles, à moyen terme, de budget balancé.

The paper investigates alternative measures for analysing long-term sustainability of public finances under population ageing and presents a method to transform long-term public expenditure projections into medium-term budget balance targets. Data on EU-12 (euro area) are used as illustrations. Firstly, previously used measures are discussed and their implications spelled out. It is recognised that according to the prevailing population projections the share of older people is moving to a permanently higher level, and that this has consequences on sustainability measures and their interpretation. Secondly, considerations on intergenerational fairness - based on the fertility and longevity of successive generations - are incorporated, leading to a gradual adjustment of fiscal parameters. The outcome, given the expenditure projections for EU-12, determines public debt reduction and a budget balance surplus of around 1.5% of GDP by 2010 and further, of 2%, by 2020. This budget balance path can be interpreted as a required target implied by the principle of intergenerational fairness, if the underlying expenditure projection is accepted as a commitment, or if no policies to deviate from this projection are designed. Correspondingly, the framework can be used to discuss pension reforms and other policies to help contain ageing-related expenditure, with a view to clarifying the effect of these reforms on the corresponding targets for budget balance. The paper concludes with data requirements for advancing the debate on pension reforms and sustainability of public finances, with the caveat that sufficient data is already available to bolster the conviction that reforms should not be delayed.

Illustrations : graph.
Langue : Anglais
Type d'ouvrage AQESSS : R
Doc n° : 16548 ISBN / ISSN : 92-894-6891-2
NumRec : 1654803
 

       

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